Focus on long-range forecasts for seasonal decision making
From December, the Bureau of Meteorology will start making a series of changes to improve how it communicates long-range forecasts.
The changes will encourage people to focus on its long-range forecasts – which capture all ocean and atmospheric conditions that affect seasonal weather – rather than just a few climate indicators.
The Bureau will reduce the emphasis given to climate indicators, previously referred to as climate drivers, like El Nino and La Nina. This is possible due to significant improvements over the last two decades in the science and technology that the Bureau uses.
The Bureau's General Manager of Agriculture & Water explains: "The Bureau can now capture all global environmental factors that influence Australia's weather, rather than just a handful of sea surface temperatures, to build the outlook."
Upcoming changes will help producers make decisions using the most relevant forecasts for Australia.
What will change?
From December, the Bureau will stop issuing updates and alert statements relating to climate indicators, such as the ENSO dial.
The Bureau will also change how it talks about long-range forecasts. It will refer to ‘climate indicators’ instead of ‘climate drivers’. This is because many factors influence the weather and climate patterns – not just a handful of indicators.
While the focus of the Bureau's communications will turn to the long-range forecasts, climate indicator information will still be available on the Bureau's website.
The Bureau will make further updates to its long-range forecast products in the coming months, making them easier to understand and use.
What does this mean for agriculture?
Farmers, advisers, land managers or anyone else making decisions relating to an agricultural enterprise should use the Bureau’s long-range forecasts; simply click the map, or use the magnifying glass to search for your location (see image). These are the most reliable prediction for coming weeks and months. Long-range forecasts are available on the Bureau's website, or via email subscription via the Bureau's sign-up page.
If you would like to discuss these changes, how this might impact your seasonal decision making, or would like to provide feedback to inform the future of long-range forecast products and services, you can contact the Bureau's agricultural team on agriculture@bom.gov.au.
Image: Long-range forecasts available for your farm, anywhere in Australia, from http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks. Click the map or search for your location.